Quoted Text

Early presidential polls no indication of eventual outcome(CNN) -- If polls were right early in the 2008 primaries, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani would have sailed on to become the Republican nominee for president.

That clearly didn't happen.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry jumped into the Republican race two weeks ago well after most of the field and surged past the other contenders in a Gallup Poll released Wednesday. Perry has the backing of 29% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 17%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 13% and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 10%. But that doesn't mean much this early in the race.

Between now and the first voting early next year, campaigns will rise and fall on their strategy and events beyond their control. Candidates' standings could look very different than they do now.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee got into the 2008 Republican primary race relatively late, announcing his candidacy on "The Tonight Show" in early September 2007. The politician-turned-actor-turned-politician saw a surge in a Gallup Poll taken September 7-12 when 22% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said Thompson was their choice. Giuliani was first with 34% of the vote.

The eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain, was a distant third with 15%.

Quoted Text

Between now and the first voting early next year, campaigns will rise and fall on their strategy and events beyond their control. Candidates' standings could look very different than they do now.